Happy Monday. A small piece of seasonal cheer: Andy Burnham has effectively run out of time to call a snap election this year. Of course, he says he won’t call one at all in the next 12 months, but no one in Westminster is ready to trust him on that yet.
Meanwhile, Labour are retreating from another welfare crackdown. And in related news, just one in four constituencies in England and Wales receives less welfare than its workers pay in income tax and National Insurance. See our Stat of the Day.
Are all the reversals from Downing Street starting to become a pattern? Where Trump had TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), Burnham’s governing style may be best summarised as BARM: Burnham Always Retreats to the Middle. Writing for CapX, Malcolm Gooderham argues that the Prime Minister’s first 100 days were marked by indecision, U-turns and delays. Let’s hope the indecision on snap elections continues, though.
Below you’ll find all the latest pieces from CapX, plus what we’re reading from around the web.
Marc Sidwell
Editor, CapX
Today’s Takes
Fresh thinking from CapX
Britain’s housing crisis is worse than we thought
James Ball
‘The picture is even worse than the official figures suggest – because it turns out the official figures contain a lot of duplication.’
New research from the University of Warwick suggests housebuilding is even slower than official estimates. The Government’s figures double-count resubmitted housing plans. If you take these out, then the number of planning applications shrinks by about 30%. But the same analysis does have some good news about the power of planning reform. Read More
The UK will pay the price for Burnham's U-turns
Malcolm Gooderham
‘If Andy Burnham’s next 100 days are distinguished by policy pivots, he risks undermining his ability to tackle the UK’s stark economic challenges.’
Andy Burnham promised the country strong and decisive leadership. But his governing style has been marked by indecision and retreat. Just as Donald Trump earned the moniker TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), the Prime Minister deserves his own: BARM (Burnham Always Retreats to the Middle). And by raising doubts in the minds of domestic and international investors, that indecision could cost Britain dearly. Read More
Stat of the Day
Best of the Web
Once again, ‘it's the economy, stupid’
Andrew Griffith, ConservativeHome
‘Hard-working people don’t want to depend upon a government press release about gherkins or bus fare caps for a better standard of living. They want to earn more, keep more of it and make the decisions about where to spend it for themselves.’
James Carville, Bill Clinton’s election strategist said it best: ‘It’s the economy, stupid’. With policies like the packaging tax and further hikes to the minimum wage, Labour are ignoring this vital political lesson. At the next election, the likely winner is the party that best answers the question: how will my family and I have a decent life? That means fewer taxes, cheaper energy and affordable hiring. Read More
Prepare for the greatest Brexit betrayal yet
Patrick West, The Spectator
‘That core of the Labour Party which used to be suspicious of the EU, in its previous incarnation of the European Economic Community, seeing it as the anti-democratic behemoth it was, is now but a memory.’
On 20 November, UK and EU leaders will meet in Brussels to sign off the next stage of the post-Brexit reset. The Government is set to give in on agriculture and food standards, and Britain will pay into EU development schemes in return for rejoining the bloc’s electricity market. Andy Burnham will probably capitulate on freedom of movement too. The benefits are small, but the price is sovereignty – a principle Labour no longer seem to value. Read More
AI is still amazing, but overrated
The Capitalist: Ross Clark – Britain is heading for a debt crisis
And if you want more...
– Why nobody stopped Russell Brand (UnHerd)
– The economics of honeypots (Marginal Revolution)
– The midterms just made the world more dangerous (Persuasion)
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Your daily reminder that there are many people receiving benefits while employed by rapacious greedy scumbag employers. Perhaps Ms Whately can persuade these greedy scum to pay higher wages?