Teaching sand to think was the easy part
Plus: JD Vance's beef with GDP, and would a World Cup win boost the FTSE?
Things are about to get weird. A proposal today for the regulation of frontier AI models by Demis Hassabis, the CEO of DeepMind, stresses the technology’s potential – ‘10x of the Industrial Revolution at 10x the speed’ – but also the need to work out how to keep it under control. It turns out that teaching sand to think was the easy part.
In a sign of how AI will soon shape politics everywhere, the state of New York has just banned new data centres. Of course, the UK’s Nimbys are already working hard to do the same here.
And as if Andy Burnham didn’t have enough to think about, the return of hostilities between the US and Iran pushed the UK’s borrowing costs above 5% for the first time since May. Oh, and the Government’s about to start telling you to stockpile food in case of a Russian cyberattack. Still, at least the weather’s nice.
Marc Sidwell
Editor, CapX
Today’s Takes
Fresh thinking from CapX
Why JD Vance is wrong about GDP
Valentin Boboc
‘The problem is that all the alternative measures to GDP are at best cheap tribute acts.’
The US Vice President’s new book attacks economics – and the value of GDP. He’s not alone: Robert Kennedy criticised GDP back in 1968, and even its creator warned it was a crude measure of national welfare. But every ‘beyond GDP’ alternative, including the UN’s, still ends up at least 90% correlated with GDP – the thing they were built to replace. Read More
NEETs need a growth strategy
Dan Moynihan
‘An economy that makes it harder and more expensive to employ people will produce more NEETs, whatever schools do.’
Careers advice can cut the risk of young people ending up not in employment, education or training (NEET) by up to a fifth in disadvantaged areas, and schools already know how to deliver it well. But good intentions in the classroom cannot out-run an economy that keeps making it more expensive to hire young people. Fixing the NEETs crisis means getting serious about growth. Read More
Stat of the day
Best of the Web
Oil shocks are no longer so shocking
Nouriel Roubini, Project Syndicate
‘The 1990-91 oil shock lasted nine months, the 2000-01 shock was even shorter and the one following last year’s 12-day war lasted only a few weeks.’
This year’s US-Israel war with Iran has caused the largest-ever disruption to global oil supplies – yet the 1970s shocks did more damage. Oil has been weaponised so often that markets and policymakers have adapted. The newest reason? An AI boom is picking up the slack. Read More
Labour's online safety panic is a gift to predators
Noah Khogali, ConservativeHome
‘The blunt instrument of state regulation will always lose to the agility of young people.’
Does the Government have a strategy for keeping children safe online? Or is the primary objective to be seen doing something – no matter how ill-conceived? Panic makes for good headlines and bad policy – and risks pushing children somewhere no one can see them. Read More
Four reforms Burnham should steal from Starmer
Sam Dumitriu
The Capitalist: Towler – ‘It ain’t cricket’
And if you want more...
– Even Labour voters are nervous about Ed Miliband (New Statesman)
– Could football coming home boost the FTSE? (City AM)
– How to beat holiday traffic, according to maths (The Conversation)
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