It's on: Binface v Farage
Plus: Britain's slow-motion bankruptcy, and how capitalism built the counterculture
Peace is over. Donald Trump has announced that the Iran ceasefire is at an end, and talks are a ‘waste of time’. (He may be right on that, as Damien Phillips wrote in CapX last week.)
Trump has also used the NATO summit in Ankara to reiterate his demands for control of Greenland (see our Stat of the Day) and to order all trade with Spain to be cut off for failing to contribute enough. We bet Keir Starmer is wishing he’d spent a bit more on defence right now.
At home, the aftershocks of Nigel Farage’s resignation continue to play out. The main news is that, with all the other parties refusing to field a candidate, the by-election is looking like a straight fight between Farage and Count Binface. On this week’s episode of The Capitalist, former Reform UK comms chief Gawain Towler gives his immediate reaction to yesterday’s announcement – much more below.
And Darren Jones has admitted he tried and failed three times to abolish the Cabinet Office. Perhaps he should have read CapX first: Tim Knox set out how to go about it here last year.
Below you’ll find all the latest pieces from CapX, plus what we’re reading from around the web.
Marc Sidwell
Editor, CapX
Today’s Takes
Fresh thinking from CapX
OBR: Britain is going bankrupt in slow motion
Daniel Herring
‘Sooner or later, taxes rise, spending falls or growth accelerates – duck all three, and we face fiscal catastrophe.’
The OBR’s latest report gives a blunt verdict on Britain’s public finances: we can’t go on like this. Left unchecked, government debt will hit an unsustainable 300% of GDP within 50 years. Disaster isn’t inevitable – but every year politicians delay the fix, the price of putting it right climbs higher. Read More
What does Clacton think about Nigel Farage?
Ted Newson
‘The response to a “left behind” constituency should not be to leave them behind electorally as well.’
Clacton, a struggling seaside constituency, has long felt forgotten by Westminster. Now its political elites have decided not to field candidates against Nigel Farage as he stands for re-election. That might make strategic sense from party HQ, but it won’t convince locals that their voices are being heard. Read More
The Capitalist: Farage under fire
Gawain Towler, Reform UK’s director of communications from 2019 to 2024 and now a member of the party’s governing board, joined CapX editor Marc Sidwell in the immediate aftermath of Farage’s dramatic announcement to give his reaction.
What the establishment may be missing, according to Towler, is the English sense of fair play. People cannot abide the appearance of the entire machine turning on one man – and the more that narrative takes hold, the more it risks generating sympathy rather than aversion.
But the central question that will define the next phase of British politics is this: can a movement built around one figure survive – or strengthen – if that figure’s relatable, clubbable image is damaged by his ties to the wealthy and doubts about whether he’s willing to play by the rules?
Best of the Web
To help the young, Burnham needs to do less, not more
Mani Basharzad, City AM
‘The Government does not need to force employers to hire young people… it simply needs to get out of the way.’
People not in education, employment or training (NEETs) are costing Britain’s stretched public finances £125bn a year. Andy Burnham wants to spend more to nudge firms into hiring, while turning his nose up at ‘crude cuts’ to welfare. If he wants to support young people into work, there’s a much better answer – get government to step out of the way. Read More
Farage will win in Clacton. But will it matter?
Luke Tryl, The Spectator
‘The risk is less that Reform lose Clacton, and more that their victory is a damp squib, followed by another by-election in a few months’ time.’
Nigel Farage has placed a big bet by resigning and standing for re-election in Clacton. He hopes to strike a blow against the establishment and give Reform UK a political boost. But while his election victory looks certain, he risks it being a hollow one. With no major party challenging him, his real fight will be against voter apathy and the indignity of the face-off with Count Binface. Read More
Sorry, JD Vance: growth is good for your soul too
Stat of the day
And if you want more...
– Your flat is too hot. Blame the state (CapX archive)
– The British startup fighting Alzheimer’s from space (Inc.)
– The counterculture was capitalist all along (The Daily Economy)
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