Even the rich can't afford London
Plus: the coronation of King Andy, and it's time to tax BS
How unaffordable is housing in London? Well, if you’re very rich, the cheapest homes are just about within reach.
If you want to know why, look no further than our Stat of the Day, below, on the state of housebuilding in the capital. Fortunately, a report out today, co-published by CapX’s parent organisation, the Centre for Policy Studies, and Onward, is full of smart ideas on how and where to get more homes built. Let’s hope whoever ends up as housing secretary is listening.
Andy Burnham himself is apparently busy planning to strip Palantir’s productivity-enhancing software out of the NHS. Why? We all know why.
On the bright side, the current Prime Minister is mulling extending opening hours beyond 1am for the England-Mexico game. Don’t schedule anything important for Monday morning.
Below you’ll find the latest from CapX, plus what we’re reading from around the web.
Marc Sidwell
Editor, CapX
Today’s Take
Fresh thinking from CapX
Burnham’s coronation comes with a catch
Lee David Evans
There is as much doubt about Labour’s upcoming leadership contest as there was at the Accession Council in September 2022. Like the Privy Counsellors before them, Labour MPs will soon declare Andy Burnham leader with ‘one voice and consent of tongue and heart’. There will be no contest, just a coronation.
On the face of it, a coronation is good news for an incoming leader. Instead of having to dominate a field of rivals, they take on the top job with nobody strong enough to stand against them. That Burnham finds himself in such a position having only just re-entered Parliament is an unprecedented achievement.
But in several respects, Burnham’s singular ascent is an echo of the past – especially the Conservatives’ old way of choosing leaders. While Labour has always had some form of internal election, Tory leaders prior to 1965 simply ‘emerged’. Either by occupying an unassailable position near the top of the party, or by being judged the best available leader by party grandees, a single candidate for leader would be identified. This practice had its critics – including one MP who alleged it was ‘more appropriate for the enstoolment of an African tribal chief’ – but it generally got the job done. And quickly.
A look at the most recent leaders to emerge unchallenged suggests it’s unlikely to be all roses for Burnham
While it might feel that we’re in a somewhat farcical limbo right now, with Keir Starmer squatting in Number 10 as his authority ebbs away, this transfer of power will still be relatively swift compared to the alternative. If somebody else was to be nominated, Burnham and his rival would spend weeks tearing chunks out of each other before the selectorate of party members and affiliates decided between them. As the Tories found time and again, it is a guaranteed way to tarnish a party’s reputation. Labour will be glad to avoid a summer of division.
So much for the positives, what about the downsides of coronation? A look at the most recent leaders to emerge unchallenged suggests it’s unlikely to be all roses for Burnham. The last person to do so in Labour was Gordon Brown; the last Conservative was Rishi Sunak. Both were major figures within their parties with many admired qualities, but neither enjoyed a happy premiership. Worse still, neither went on to win the next election.
Labour MPs are hoping Burnham can break that pattern and seem to accept that a radical change of direction is needed if they are to have any chance of holding their seats. Which makes it all the more remarkable that, as there will be no leadership contest, there will be no meaningful debate about what that change should look like. The nebulous set of policies associated with Burnham will, in practice, simply be accepted as Labour policy.
Alongside the absence of debate comes the alleged lack of a real mandate from the party. This charge is hardly damning – what fault is it of Burnham’s if nobody chooses to stand against him? – but future critics are likely to wield it nonetheless. In recent history, both Sunak and Theresa May (who had to fight for the leadership among MPs but was spared a members’ ballot in 2016) were accused of lacking the authority enjoyed by leaders who had triumphed in more comprehensive leadership contests.
On balance, Burnham’s coronation is good news both for him and for his party. But it’s far from unalloyed. And no matter how easy it is for him to acquire the crown, the benchmark for success will be the same as for any other leader: giving his party a positive and coherent vision, delivering it and improving their position in the polls. His current dominance within the party can help to do that, but it can’t guarantee it.
Stat of the day
The CapX Reading List
The best of the web today
Britain needs a tax on bullshit
Ryan Bourne, The Times 🔒
‘Britain’s public life is overrun by people who forecast without consequence… A mature prediction market would put a price on the bluster.’
The growth of commercial prediction markets has been spectacular. Americans can buy contracts predicting things like the next unemployment rate or whether Donald Trump will say ‘communist’ in an announcement. Not in Britain, though, thanks to over-cautious regulators. But prediction markets offer something worth having: a tax on the commentators with no skin in the game. Read More
Can Netflix save the BBC?
Christopher Snowdon, The Critic
‘We don’t know how much people value the BBC’s televisual output because it has never been put to the test.’
The BBC’s doom loop is gathering pace, as a growing minority watch for free without paying the licence fee because they feel – justifiably – that they are at little risk of being prosecuted. For all its flaws, killing the BBC wouldn’t make British broadcasting less biased. To survive, it needs to learn from one of its biggest rivals. Read More
Got a growth idea? Get funded fast
Julia Willemyns
The Capitalist: Hunt – welfare reform or bust
And if you want more...
– Boris is up to something (The Spectator)
– Is this the first step to creating life? (Science)
– Hot people really are more right-wing (UnHerd)
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How to significantly increase the housing supply without causing congestion, overcrowding etc.
+ Build high-rise( up to 80 stories) villages with spacious, quality units close to green spaces but linked to rapid transit.