Scratch those plans for a snap election – the latest YouGov MRP poll suggests a general election now would return Labour as the largest party, but needing the support of the Lib Dems and either the Greens or the nationalist parties to govern.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, will be happy to take second place in the poll, which projected them to end up with seven more seats than Reform UK. It isn’t good news for advocates of reuniting the Right, though. The two parties combined would be well short of a majority government, even if they could tolerate sharing a front bench.
In their quest to win back more voters, the Tories today announced bold plans on welfare reform, including a 'subsistence allowance' set 30% below the full rate of universal credit for claimants with little or no work history. It would be paid on an Australian-style card that stops the money being spent on alcohol and cigarettes. Not everyone thought the card was workable, but standing up for tight controls on taxpayers’ money is likely to prove popular.
Below you’ll find all the latest pieces from CapX, plus what we’re reading from around the web.
Marc Sidwell
Editor, CapX
Today’s Takes
Fresh thinking from CapX
Net Zero can't help Britain escape the energy trap
Richard Lyon
‘The first crisis of the post-peak world was filed as a banking failure, but it was the oil shock that came first.’
The 2008 financial crisis went down in history as a banking crisis. In reality it was the start of an ongoing energy crisis. Today, we are spending the last of our cheap oil on the energy transition to wind and solar demanded by Net Zero. But this is unsustainable. We need to use our dwindling oil supply to build energy infrastructure that can actually replace fossil fuels. Read More
The private sector can take Britain back to the stars
James Price
‘Imagine if we encouraged entrepreneurs and dreamers to look to the infinite adventure of space, rather than have to worry about the tawdry realities of domestic politics.’
Britain used to have a space programme until Ted Heath cancelled it. Today the Americans are far ahead in the space race, followed by the Chinese. This frontier is now becoming a matter of supreme importance for our defence and prosperity. Britain can still play a key role, by unleashing private enterprise. Read More
Stat of the Day
Best of the Web
What the productivity debate got wrong
Ryan Bourne, The Times 🔒
‘Productivity growth itself has also still been historically slow. Had it continued along its pre-crisis trend, output per hour would have been 10% higher by 2024.’
Last week the ONS started using a new method to track output per hour worked. It turns out Britons have been more productive than we thought because they worked fewer hours. So much for the British disease. Still, if we had known sooner we would have focused more on whether the tax and benefits system was discouraging hours worked. Read More
Can Healey dodge more tax rises?
Michael Simmons, The Spectator
‘Ever since bond vigilantes around the world decided it was time to offload their holdings in sovereign debt, Westminster has assumed that tax rises are inevitable.’
What will John Healey do in the Budget? Some would like the Chancellor to restore the fiscal headroom to £20bn. But there’s no iron-clad law forcing him to. He could stick with a smaller margin for error of £10bn, and avoid adding to the £70bn of tax rises Labour have already inflicted on British taxpayers. Read More
Zack Polanski is wrong about data centres
Sam Dumitriu
The Capitalist: the past was worse than you think
And if you want more...
– Can Streeting kill off NHS England? (The Critic)
– Are the Lib Dems coming for the Tory heartlands? (ConservativeHome)
– A trade policy for a post-Trump world (Civitas Outlook)
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