Britain's last chance?
Plus: Devolution's dirty secret, and how Victorian houses keep their cool
Wow, what a victory. And not just for the Tories.
With Andy Burnham romping home in the Makerfield by-election (much more below), Keir Starmer has had good news and bad news: the good news is that his party can beat Reform UK – but only by promising to kick him out of office.
Burnham celebrated by saying his win was the ‘last chance’ to change the country, and vowed to lay out ‘a new path for Britain’. Since that path included an end to ‘trickle-down economics’, keep tight hold of your valuables.
How long can Starmer cling on? This afternoon, several Cabinet members have apparently told him his time is up. They join 100 Labour MPs who have broken ranks publicly. But the man himself is still vowing to fight the former Mayor of Manchester to the bitter end. We’ll be here for it. Bring popcorn.
Below you’ll find all the latest pieces from CapX, plus what we’re reading from around the web.
Marc Sidwell
Editor, CapX
Today’s Takes
Fresh thinking from CapX
Andy Burnham is coming for Downing Street. Be afraid
Gawain Towler
‘The danger of a Burnham premiership is not that it would be radical on the economy. It is that, barred from being radical on the economy, it would be radical on everything else.’
For now, Andy Burnham is untainted by Labour’s dismal record over the last two years. But winning the anti-Westminster vote is easier than governing. If he makes it to No.10, Burnham will face the same fiscal constraints – and the red meat he will be forced to throw to his angry backbenchers will come at the country’s expense. Read More
Bikes or bullets?
Steve Barclay
‘As first Lord of the Treasury, the Prime Minister does not need the Chancellor or Chief Secretary’s consent.’
It’s not the Treasury that’s unwilling to fund defence – it’s the Prime Minister. A former Chief Secretary to the Treasury says the money can be found without new debt or tax rises, and from more politically palatable sources than welfare, like funding for bike lanes and heat pumps. Changes to four projects could plug the £4.5 billion gap – and give Keir Starmer some ammunition when phoning his backbenchers. Read More
Devolution's dirty secret
John Penrose
‘Regional mayors and devolved First Ministers never have to face the music for the taxes that raise the cash they’re throwing about.’
The ‘Burnham effect’ that propelled Labour to victory in Makerfield is only the latest example of regional leaders who are miles more popular than their opposite numbers in Westminster. It’s a phenomenon that exposes a fundamental flaw in Tony Blair’s devolution settlement. Time to finish the job. Read More
Stat of the day
The CapX Reading List
The best of the web today
Aberdeen South was a victory for energy security
Georgiana Bristol, ConservativeHome
‘When I was in Aberdeen last month, a taxi driver – always a reliable indicator of public opinion – told me, “I’ve never voted Conservative – and I hate the Conservatives – but this time they’ve got my vote”.’
You’d be forgiven for not knowing that, 333 miles north of Makerfield, another by-election was taking place. Last night, the Conservatives retook Aberdeen South. It would be a mistake to call this the first harbinger of a Conservative comeback – but it was a remarkable victory, most of all for Britain’s oil and gas industry. Read More
Don't blame Brexit for Britain's economic woes
Gerard Lyons, The Telegraph 🔒
‘The fundamental causes of Britain’s weak economic performance long predate Brexit and remain within our power to fix.’
Labour want Britain to align more closely with the EU, becoming a rule-taker across a range of areas. A new report for the Centre for Policy Studies shows that this approach risks distracting from the pro-growth agenda we need at best – and actively blocking policies that could raise growth at worst. Read More
We're measuring carbon emissions in the wrong way
David Lawrence and Pedro Serôdio
The Capitalist: The battle for Brexit isn’t over
And if you want more...
– Fifa was right about ticket pricing (Bloomberg)
– Why Victorian houses are so much cooler (The Conversation)
– How good is your mini golf? (Putt.day)
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