Beware the 'Burnham premium'
We're all paying for Labour's chaos
Welcome to the CapX Briefing, our daily end-of-day round-up of the ideas and arguments that matter, read by opinion-formers, Westminster insiders and anyone who wants to know what’s going on in politics, economics, technology and ideas. From Monday to Friday we round up the latest pieces from CapX, alongside the best new writing from around the web. On Sunday, we share our best pieces of the week. Please share, subscribe and let me know what you think.
Today, the UK unemployment rate ‘unexpectedly’ hit 5%, while in even more predictable news, HS2’s costs and delays continued to mount (see our Stat of the Day, below) and Andy Burnham was announced as the Labour Party’s candidate for the Makerfield constituency.
On CapX today, we featured a speech by Mel Stride laying out his party’s Golden Rule, and the economist Julian Jessop explained why, despite the polls, Britain’s voters aren’t clamouring to reverse Brexit. You’ll find more details below, plus what we’re reading from around the web.
Marc Sidwell
Editor, CapX
Today’s Takes
Fresh thinking from CapX
Labour aren't working, and they're costing us a fortune
Mel Stride
‘Any serious party worthy of governing our country must have a clear answer as to what they are going to do about our rising debt.’
Speaking at the Centre for Policy Studies today, Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride’s message was clear: this Government is in chaos, and is incapable of solving Britain’s deep economic problems. The bond markets know this, and the cost of borrowing has spiked as a result of Labour’s leadership crisis. If this continues, every UK household will pay £300 for the ‘Burnham premium’. Read More
Does Britain really want to rejoin the EU?
Julian Jessop
‘Rejoining the EU might be popular with some activists. But the prospect of reopening the Brexit debate remains as toxic as ever in the country at large.’
Remainers like Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting often claim that a majority of Britons want to rejoin the EU. While some polls suggest this, the truth is that the surveys on this issue are riddled with inconsistencies. If pro-EU activists left their bubble, they’d find that most people think the idea of re-opening the Brexit debate is too toxic to entertain. Read More
Stat of the Day
The CapX Reading List
The best of the web today
The youth unemployment crisis is Starmer's legacy
Michael Simmons, The Spectator
‘The Prime Minister and Chancellor have been midwife and obstetrician to the birth of a new dependant generation hooked on state support.’
The unemployment rate has climbed again to 5% – up half a percentage point on a year ago. The picture is even bleaker for the young. Analysis from the IFS released today shows the fall in youth employment is not far off what we saw in 2008 and again during the pandemic. When Keir Starmer is eventually removed by his MPs, this is what he will be remembered for. Read More
Britain needs more Thatcherism, not less
Stephen Daisley, The Daily Telegraph 🔒
‘Mrs Thatcher left Downing Street 36 years ago. She died 13 years ago. She nevertheless remains a boogeyman for those whose politics have not moved on from the 1980s.’
In a video on social media, Andy Burnham has blamed Margaret Thatcher’s government for Britain’s economic woes. But the truth is that it was her political vision and economic dynamism that enabled millions of ordinary Britons to own their own homes and shares for the very first time. Read More
An anti-gambling bonanza
Christopher Snowdon, The Critic
‘Once gambling was transformed into a “public health” issue, the door was open to thousands of postgraduates with random qualifications to hone their dubious craft.’
Gambling research has traditionally been a niche area dominated by a relative handful of psychologists, but that changed when tens of millions of pounds were up for grabs. In the last three years, the market has been flooded with social scientists claiming to have insights into gambling. Don’t buy their snake oil. Read More
The Capitalist
In this week’s episode of CapX’s podcast, Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt discusses:
What is really going wrong with the British economy?
Why the markets are spooked
What a change of Labour leadership could mean for the country’s already precarious fiscal position
Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
And if you want more...
– Wokeness has peaked – what followed is worse (Tyler Cowen 🔒)
– The politics of The Beatles (The Ruffian 🎙️)
– Why we need more expensive houses (Sam Dumitriu)
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We’ll be back tomorrow.